Road to Oscar 2/ “Driving Miss Daisy” 23 years later? PGA and SAG results
Last week in comments an interesting observation came about chances for “Argo” to upset “Lincoln” in what look as an uphill battle. The last movie to win “Best Picture” without having a nomination for “Best Director” has been “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1990. However it looks more and more likely that “Argo” can pull the upset.
This weekend we saw two of the leading indicators for the Academy Awards, the Producers Guld Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The Producers Guild Awards are considered a leading indicator for Best Picture. In the past 23 ceremonies the PGA has predicted the Best Picture winner 17 times and, like the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards the PGA awarded “Argo” as “Best Picture”. Despite the Ben Affleck snub a Best Picture/Best Director split now seems higly likely. The PGA also awarded the “Best Animated Feature” and the winner has been “Wreck-it-Ralph” which increase chances for our video-game villaine to defeat the fellow-Disney scottish amazone, but still pay attention to Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie”.
What about the SAG? The award of actors union are a leading and reliable Oscar predictor since 1995. Last year three of the four winners then get the Academy (Jean Dujardin; Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer) with Viola Davis being the lone defeated of the SAG winners. This year the SAG awarded Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln) as Best Actor, a feat that cements is front-runner status, while Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) won as Best Actress signing an important point in her “Clash of the Titans” versus Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), though probabily Jessica Chastain used some vodoo power against the poor Jennifer. As for supporting awards Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) defeats Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) thus mantaing the race for Best Supporting Actor wide open, while Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) made another step towards her first Oscar confirming her “sure bet” status for the Best Supporting Actress award. While the “Best Cast” award went to “Argo” which is a surprise since only one actor of the cast, Alan Arkin, was nominated. Anoter sign that “Argo” will becom the “Best Picture”?. Let’s see how bookies reacted to this important awards. Into bracket last week average quota.
BEST PICTURE
Lincoln 1.74 (1.29)
Argo 1.82 (5.40)-GGD-PGA-CC
Les Misérables 27.85 (11.61)-GGCM
Silver Linings Playbook 37.92 (25.43)
Life of Pi 52.92 (23.58)
Zero Dark Thirty 56.54 (31.93)
Amour 84.15 (45.93)
Django 127.46 (101.29)
Beasts of the Southern Wild 143.31 (115.57)
As said above the PGA victory has propelled “Argo” that now is neck and neck with “Lincoln”. Before “Argo” seven movies have been able to win Golden Globe; PGA and Critics Choice in the same year. Only two of this seven movies have not then won the Oscar (“Brokeback Mountain” and “Saving Private Ryan”). The momentum is surely with “Argo”
BEST DIRECTOR
Steven Spielberg (2/7)-Lincoln 1.29 (1.19)
Ang Lee (1/3)-Life of Pi 7.29 (6.87)
Michael Haneke (0/1)-Amour 13.17 (11.34)
David O. Russell (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 18.00 (17.08)
Benh Zeitlin (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 39.33 (37.42)
Despite “Lincoln” continuing streak of defeats Spielberg retains a sizeable lead over Ang Lee. However if Spielberg miss also the DGA, then i will not rule out a possible upset. Though a Spielberg defeat is still a longshot, the streak of defeats “Lincoln” is having is worrying and might influence even this award that everybody thought was in Spielberg’s hands
BEST ACTOR
Daniel Day Lewis (2/5)-Lincoln 1.05 (1.07)-GGD-SAG-CC
Hugh Jackman (0/1)-Les Misérables 14.79 (9.84)-GGCM
Joaquin Phoenix (0/3)-The Master 32.75 (26.00)
Bradley Cooper (0/1)-Silver Linings Playbook 52.25 (33.64)
Denzel Washington (2/6)- The Flight 59.00 (33.64)
There’s little to say here. Daniel Day Lewis continues to walk toward his third Oscar. The distance over his nearest competitor, Hugh Jackman is too high to think of a possible upset.
BEST ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence (0/2)-Silver Lingins Playbook 1.54 (1.60)-GGCM-SAG
Jessica Chastain (0/2)-Zero Dark Thirty 2.76 (2.69)-GGD-CC
Emmanuelle Riva (0/1)-Amour 9.86 (12.39)
Naomi Watts (0/2)-The Impossible 29.18 (21.14)
Quvenzhanè Wallis (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 41.07 (38.79)
Lawrence and Chastain continues their battle neck and neck. Lawrence holds the lead, but a very tiny one. The protagonist of “Hunger Games” have signed a point with her SAG victory, but Chastain seems not willing to concede. However, while looking at Hollywood super-stars, pay attention to french veteran Emmanuelle Riva who is slowly remounting. She’s still far from the two favourites but let’s keep an eye on her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones (1/4)-Lincoln 1.72 (2.30)-SAG
Philip Seymour Hoffman (1/4)-The Master 4.21 (2.71)-CC
Christoph Waltz (1/2)-Django Unchained 4.85 (4.69)-GG
Robert De Niro (2/7)-Silver Linings Playbook 10.73 (12.41)
Alan Arkin (1/4)-Argo 27.00 (16.73)
SAG sometimes is a “game changer”. It seems this year has been the case with Tommy Lee Jones who after the victory distances Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman and Golden Globe winner Christoph Waltz. The momentum is with Tommy Lee Jones, while probabily Seymour Hoffman will be surpassed by Christoph Waltz as the main rival for TLJ.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (0/2)-Les Misérables 1.03 (1.06)-GG-SAG-CC
Sally Field (2/3)-Lincoln 18.46 (14.50)
Amy Adams (0/4)-The Master 34.86 (21.50)
Helen Hunt (1/2)-The Sessions 37.07 (15.75)
Jacki Weaver (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 50.79 (49.00)
Little to say here. Anne Hathaway is running far ahead and there seems to be no chance for her rivals to worry her front-runner status. A status only cemented by her SAG victory.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria) 1.04 (1.04)-GG-CC
A Royal Affair (Denmark) 14.33 (14.83)
Kon Tiki (Norway) 20.83 (19.58)
No (Chile) 33.67 (33.00)
War Witch (Canada) 37.17 (36.83)
Minimal changes in this category, only barely touched by this week’s awards. “Amour” confirms to be a sure bet for this award.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave 1.90 (1.99)-GG-CC
Frankenweenie 2.67 (2.21)
Wreck-it-Ralph 4.47 (5.80)-PGA
Paranorman 21.00 (13.00)
The Pirates! Band of Misfists 31.83 (24.00)
PGA victory has helped Wreck-it-Ralph to bounce, however the videogame villain who wants to “change” is still an underdog against the scottish maiden and Tim Burton’s born again dog. An interesting three-way race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty 2.35 (1.95)
Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained 2.93 (3.05)-GG-CC
Michael Haneke-Amour 3.08 (3.33)
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola-Moonrise Kingdom 16.29 (13.20)
John Gatnis-Flight 24.71 (23.17)
Little movements in this three-way race. “Zero Dark Thirty”; “Django” and “Amour” are running neck-and-neck. Probabily we’ll have to wait BAFTA and WGA to see real movements. Unfortunately my personal pick “Moonrise Kingdom” is running distant fourth with little chances to worry the three front-runners 
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner-Lincoln 1.41 (1.42)-CC
Chris Terrio-Argo 3.17 (3.42)
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook 8.57 (8.12)
David Magee-Lif of Pi 19.62 (19.58)
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild 30.37 (25.67)
The effects of the SAG and PGA have helped “Argo” bouncing a little, though “Lincoln” still got the edge. Even here we probabily must wait WGA and BAFTA to see a real “Game Change”.
And that’s all for this week fellow readers. We’ll wait next week after the DGA to see further developments. If Affleck upset Spielberg even at the DGA then, who can stop “Argo”?
Posted on January 28, 2013, in Awards, Movies and tagged Academy Award, Argo, Ben Affleck, Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln, Screen Actors Guild, Screen Actors Guild Award, Steven Spielberg. Bookmark the permalink. 14 Comments.
This is great stuff, I’ve seen Oscar predictions before but never in this context. That said, if Lincoln wins best picture I’ll probably throw my remote and cry myself to sleep! It was ok- but I just didn’t see it as the work of genius many did. It seemed slow, very drawn out, and completely unimaginative.
Thanks for compliments. Lincoln has been released in my country last week. I’m hoping to see it tomorrow and to make myself a judgement. By the trailer it seems a little apologetic towards Lincoln and radical republicans. The issue of slavery and subsequent segregation is very complex and Lincoln position on that issue has been much more ambigous than the common vision, who treats Lincoln like a secular saint, usually portraits. However I still need to see it. Spielberg (and Whoopi Goldberg) made a great stuff in “The Colour Purple” treating a similar issue, I’m hoping to see something nearly as good as “The Colour Purple”.
I haven’t seen very many of this year’s crop of Oscar nominees yet. I probably won’t see them until next year. I did catch up with The Artist on video this past weekend. Good movie, but I don’t know how it won Best Picture. Was it really that weak of a year? Or did the Academy just honor a movie that honored their history?
I’m definitely interested to hear what you think of Lincoln. I think many Americans cling to the film because they feel it is the patriotic thing to do. It would be hard to deny the real Lincoln was an admirable human being but that doesn’t mean the film based on his presidency is worth an Oscar!
I finally saw Lincoln (just came back from cinema
)
To a quick resume: the movie is very good, but somebody not interested in history or politics may find it boring. If I have to compare it to “Argo” well, to me, there’s no match. “Lincoln” is very good, both Day-Lewis and Lee Jones are Oscar-worthy (Field was somewhat weaker, however she deserve the nomination too). Good direction; good art direction; good costume design, excellent make up but… but “Argo” is able to entertain the audience much more. Affleck is able to make politics and hitory entertaining even to people who usually get bored at it, while “Lincoln” can be boring to people not interested in those kind of subject. My mark to “Lincoln” is an 8/10, so very good, but “Argo is an 8.5/10
While speaking about the character of Abraham Lincoln, as history graduate and fanatic of american history I think I have title to say that Spielberg has taken a few “licenses”. Lincoln was not very interested in slavery issue. Lincoln was a man of his time. In his time was common consensus to believe in white supremacy, and Lincoln firmly believed in white supremacy, while opposing slavery. Lincoln was a Machiavelli disciple and in the end he supported the XIII amandament ’cause he saw it as a way to end the war and save the Union, which was, as a typical Machiavelli disciple, his primary concern. It was only a matter of “raison d’état”.
Also I find dubious some messages “Lincoln” sent. You might feel that delibarate corruption and abuse of presidential power (Lincoln did both) might be good. Here’s another machiavellan leit-motiv that Spielberg tries to send. Machiavelli has been quoted to say that aim justifies means. So since the aim of Lincoln was good, he was good in abusing his powers and do massive corruption. But, who decides when an aim is good? And how far can you go to pursue your aim? Here I think Spielberg has been somewhat ambigous and maybe sent a dangerous message.
Well, I saw seven of the nine Best Picture nominee last year. Among the nine the only two that really liked were “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris”. I found “The Artist” extremely cute, and I loved both protagonists (Dujardin and Bejo), to me it’s a little masterpiece. Also “Midnight in Paris” markes a good comeback for Woody Allen after many years of mediocrity. While the others, well…
The Help-> cute, but given the hot subject I expected much more. I didn’t like Viola Davis performance, while Octavia Spencer was super. It’s a pity ’cause the subect was interesting and potentially powerful but I think there’s been something wrong. A weak director, a weak script and a weak lead actress made of a potential masterpiece just a nice comedy.
Hugo-> One of the weakest Scorsese’s efforts in my opinion. Not a case it was a spectacular bomb
The Descendants-> Good job by Clooney but both daughters were simply detestable and plot is too much surreal. Also I think there’s little humanity in all the story
Moneyball-> Good movie but maybe it’s subject (baseball) is too american to connect with europeans like me. Here baseball is not popular at all so it’s been hard to understand it to me. So I probabily underestimate it since baseball is like arab to me and 99.9% of italians. Good job by Brad Pitt
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close-> Well, I just can’t connect with Sandra Bullock (she’s something like box-office poison to me) however it’s a nice effort with an interesting plot. Good but not great
I didn’t see “The Tree of Life” and “War Horse”. I’ve heard by many that “War Horse” is probabily one of Spielberg’s weakest movies, while I’ve not been able to see “The Tree of Life” when it was on cinema. I have to see it on DVD one of those days.
Special (shame) mention to “The Iron Lady”. It wasn’t among the nine (luckly) but I have to point that is probabily the weakest performance of Meryl Streep entire carreer. The movie is not able to capture Thatcher at all. Thatcher was a leader with a populist charisma. Thatcher strenght, as a politician, as always been her “plebians” background (the “grocer’s daughter” like Queen Elizabeth used to diminish her) and her populist syle. Streep portrays her as a snobbish aristocratic, the exactly opposite of what Thatcher was. She was long snubbed by conservatives leaders (UK Conservatives are heavily linked with aristocracy. Just look at David Cameron family background p.e.) more because of her middle class background than for her sex. Plus the movie just not capture anything of Thatcher and Thatcherism. Especially when Europe and EUM are failing, showing that Thatcher was right on Europe and Euro currency, Thatcher is an important figure whose profetic euroscepticism needed to be enlightned in such a movie but nothing. They didn’t award her for “Out of Africa” or “the French Lieutenant Woman” and they award her for “The Iron Lady”. Sometimes the Academy is really disputable (To me I would have gave the Oscar to Michelle Williams or Rooney Mara since I didn’t like neither Streep nor Davis)
All this to say that, yes, last year’s field was probabily one of the weakest ever. However I think that “The Artist” is a little gem
Don’t get me wrong, I liked The Artist. Dujardin and Bejo were great. I just felt like it was a 15 minute sketch stretched to 90 minutes. Also, the use of the score from Vertigo totally put me off. Pulled me right out of the movie and made me wish I was watching Vertigo instead.
On the other hand, I loved Midnight in Paris. I can see why the Academy might think it was a little slight. But I’d take it over The Artist any day. I also preferred The Descendents and The Help. Of last year’s nominees (that I have seen), The Artist (while good) is easily my least favorite.
Don’t you worry. It’s just a matter of tastes
However I find “The Artist” poetic and romantic. A classy movie with stunning protagonists. I liked also the direction of Michel Hazanavicius. The moment of the car crash is a high class touch. The same I can say about “Midnight in Paris”. Woody Allen has been able to make nice even the usually detestable Carla Bruni. This is something that deserve an Oscar
Jokes aside, charming plot, a super Owen Wilson, and my personal darling Marion Cotillard makes a wonderful movie.
I think that movies like “The Ides of March”, “Drive”, “The Girl with the Dragon Tatoo” and “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” deserved more recognition in my opinion.
What about “The Help”? Well, I’ve had high expectations for it but something didn’t work in my opinion. I thought about movies like “The Colour Purple” or “Fried Green Tomatoes” and “The Help” i think just really can’t play the match with them. While Spencer is super (she was something like “Mummy 2.0″) I think that both Davis and Taylor Tate could have done more. I would have probabily switched roles between Spencer and Davis. Maybe I would have also switched Chastain and Dallas Howard. I think that Spencer and Chastain probabily would have done a better job than Davis and Dallas Howard. Special mention to Spacek who is awesome. Also I think direction and script were somewhat weak. Frankly I think too much honey and political correctness made of a potential milestone a nice comedy, but I need to check to book to see who’s fault.
“The Descendants”? Good Clooney but i really wanted to strangle both daughters. And also I found some lack of humanity in all the plot. Really if my wife was about to die in ten days I would spent every single minute with her. I wouldn’t go to check her secret lover with high risk of being not there when she passes away.
However, as I always say, “de gustibus non disputandum est”
I agree with everything you said about The Artist and Midnight in Paris. As you said, personal tastes led me to prefer MiP of TA. I’m a huge Woody Allen fan, so that definitely works in MiP’s favor.
I have the Ides of March and Tinker Tailor on my DVR. I haven’t watched them yet, so I can’t comment. I did like Drive a lot. Girl With the Dragon Tattoo was good as well.
I didn’t really want to like The Help. But I got caught up in it completely. I’m a little embrassed to admit how much I liked it.
I didn’t have any issues with the daughters in The Descendants. I really related to their family unit, dysfunctional as it was. I could totally see Clooney’s character avoiding dealing with his dying wife. They were estranged to begin with. And then he found out she had been unfaithful. He had to be carrying a lot of grief and anger. I actually thought his character handled it all very well.
I’m not sure what your quote was, but I’m guessing it has to do with differing tastes. There is no accounting for taste. All of these movies were good. I’m not sure any of them were great.
“De gustibus non disputandum est” is a latin locution attributed to Cicero. Literary translation is something like “tastes can’t be discussed”
Sorry it made me look like Paul of “Midnight in Paris” 
Well, and speaking about Paul of “Midnight in Paris”, I think that Michael Sheen is probabily one of the most under-rated actors alive. He was great as Tony Blair in “The Queen”, awesome iin “Four Weddings and a Funeral” and even in “Frost/Nixon”. I’m so sad he has not the popularity he deserves.
I almost went to a school where I would have learned Latin. Almost. Nice reference to MiP. Well done.
I think movie buffs love Sheen. The general public has no idea who he is, but that’s true of most character actors. My wife thinks of him as the guy from the Twilight movies.
Sheen was in Four Weddings? I don’t remember him in that at all.
If I had more time, I would like to do a series on character actors kind of like Daffy’s 12 Angry Men articles. I always find character actors fascinating. But they usually make so many movies, the articles would be even more intensive than the WTHH articles.
In “Four Weddings and a Funeral” Michael Sheen is the mute brother of Hugh Grant. The one that interrupts Grant’s wedding with “Duckface”
Oh riiiiiight! I completely forgot. It’s been a long time. I actually have that movie in my collection. Probably dust it off for WTHH to Hugh Grant and WTHH to Andie McDowell.
And also Kristin Scott Thomas, always for WTHH (even if in reality nothing happened to KST. She simply walked away to France and despite being french movies so sucessful in recent years, France movie industry is still not as powerful as UK or US)