Road to Oscar 2/ “Driving Miss Daisy” 23 years later? PGA and SAG results
Last week in comments an interesting observation came about chances for “Argo” to upset “Lincoln” in what look as an uphill battle. The last movie to win “Best Picture” without having a nomination for “Best Director” has been “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1990. However it looks more and more likely that “Argo” can pull the upset.
This weekend we saw two of the leading indicators for the Academy Awards, the Producers Guld Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The Producers Guild Awards are considered a leading indicator for Best Picture. In the past 23 ceremonies the PGA has predicted the Best Picture winner 17 times and, like the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards the PGA awarded “Argo” as “Best Picture”. Despite the Ben Affleck snub a Best Picture/Best Director split now seems higly likely. The PGA also awarded the “Best Animated Feature” and the winner has been “Wreck-it-Ralph” which increase chances for our video-game villaine to defeat the fellow-Disney scottish amazone, but still pay attention to Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie”.
What about the SAG? The award of actors union are a leading and reliable Oscar predictor since 1995. Last year three of the four winners then get the Academy (Jean Dujardin; Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer) with Viola Davis being the lone defeated of the SAG winners. This year the SAG awarded Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln) as Best Actor, a feat that cements is front-runner status, while Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) won as Best Actress signing an important point in her “Clash of the Titans” versus Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), though probabily Jessica Chastain used some vodoo power against the poor Jennifer. As for supporting awards Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) defeats Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) thus mantaing the race for Best Supporting Actor wide open, while Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) made another step towards her first Oscar confirming her “sure bet” status for the Best Supporting Actress award. While the “Best Cast” award went to “Argo” which is a surprise since only one actor of the cast, Alan Arkin, was nominated. Anoter sign that “Argo” will becom the “Best Picture”?. Let’s see how bookies reacted to this important awards. Into bracket last week average quota.
Lincoln 1.74 (1.29)
Argo 1.82 (5.40)-GGD-PGA-CC
Les Misérables 27.85 (11.61)-GGCM
Silver Linings Playbook 37.92 (25.43)
Life of Pi 52.92 (23.58)
Zero Dark Thirty 56.54 (31.93)
Amour 84.15 (45.93)
Django 127.46 (101.29)
Beasts of the Southern Wild 143.31 (115.57)
As said above the PGA victory has propelled “Argo” that now is neck and neck with “Lincoln”. Before “Argo” seven movies have been able to win Golden Globe; PGA and Critics Choice in the same year. Only two of this seven movies have not then won the Oscar (“Brokeback Mountain” and “Saving Private Ryan”). The momentum is surely with “Argo”
Steven Spielberg (2/7)-Lincoln 1.29 (1.19)
Ang Lee (1/3)-Life of Pi 7.29 (6.87)
Michael Haneke (0/1)-Amour 13.17 (11.34)
David O. Russell (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 18.00 (17.08)
Benh Zeitlin (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 39.33 (37.42)
Despite “Lincoln” continuing streak of defeats Spielberg retains a sizeable lead over Ang Lee. However if Spielberg miss also the DGA, then i will not rule out a possible upset. Though a Spielberg defeat is still a longshot, the streak of defeats “Lincoln” is having is worrying and might influence even this award that everybody thought was in Spielberg’s hands
Daniel Day Lewis (2/5)-Lincoln 1.05 (1.07)-GGD-SAG-CC
Hugh Jackman (0/1)-Les Misérables 14.79 (9.84)-GGCM
Joaquin Phoenix (0/3)-The Master 32.75 (26.00)
Bradley Cooper (0/1)-Silver Linings Playbook 52.25 (33.64)
Denzel Washington (2/6)- The Flight 59.00 (33.64)
There’s little to say here. Daniel Day Lewis continues to walk toward his third Oscar. The distance over his nearest competitor, Hugh Jackman is too high to think of a possible upset.
Jennifer Lawrence (0/2)-Silver Lingins Playbook 1.54 (1.60)-GGCM-SAG
Jessica Chastain (0/2)-Zero Dark Thirty 2.76 (2.69)-GGD-CC
Emmanuelle Riva (0/1)-Amour 9.86 (12.39)
Naomi Watts (0/2)-The Impossible 29.18 (21.14)
Quvenzhanè Wallis (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 41.07 (38.79)
Lawrence and Chastain continues their battle neck and neck. Lawrence holds the lead, but a very tiny one. The protagonist of “Hunger Games” have signed a point with her SAG victory, but Chastain seems not willing to concede. However, while looking at Hollywood super-stars, pay attention to french veteran Emmanuelle Riva who is slowly remounting. She’s still far from the two favourites but let’s keep an eye on her.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones (1/4)-Lincoln 1.72 (2.30)-SAG
Philip Seymour Hoffman (1/4)-The Master 4.21 (2.71)-CC
Christoph Waltz (1/2)-Django Unchained 4.85 (4.69)-GG
Robert De Niro (2/7)-Silver Linings Playbook 10.73 (12.41)
Alan Arkin (1/4)-Argo 27.00 (16.73)
SAG sometimes is a “game changer”. It seems this year has been the case with Tommy Lee Jones who after the victory distances Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman and Golden Globe winner Christoph Waltz. The momentum is with Tommy Lee Jones, while probabily Seymour Hoffman will be surpassed by Christoph Waltz as the main rival for TLJ.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (0/2)-Les Misérables 1.03 (1.06)-GG-SAG-CC
Sally Field (2/3)-Lincoln 18.46 (14.50)
Amy Adams (0/4)-The Master 34.86 (21.50)
Helen Hunt (1/2)-The Sessions 37.07 (15.75)
Jacki Weaver (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 50.79 (49.00)
Little to say here. Anne Hathaway is running far ahead and there seems to be no chance for her rivals to worry her front-runner status. A status only cemented by her SAG victory.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria) 1.04 (1.04)-GG-CC
A Royal Affair (Denmark) 14.33 (14.83)
Kon Tiki (Norway) 20.83 (19.58)
No (Chile) 33.67 (33.00)
War Witch (Canada) 37.17 (36.83)
Minimal changes in this category, only barely touched by this week’s awards. “Amour” confirms to be a sure bet for this award.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave 1.90 (1.99)-GG-CC
Frankenweenie 2.67 (2.21)
Wreck-it-Ralph 4.47 (5.80)-PGA
Paranorman 21.00 (13.00)
The Pirates! Band of Misfists 31.83 (24.00)
PGA victory has helped Wreck-it-Ralph to bounce, however the videogame villain who wants to “change” is still an underdog against the scottish maiden and Tim Burton’s born again dog. An interesting three-way race.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty 2.35 (1.95)
Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained 2.93 (3.05)-GG-CC
Michael Haneke-Amour 3.08 (3.33)
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola-Moonrise Kingdom 16.29 (13.20)
John Gatnis-Flight 24.71 (23.17)
Little movements in this three-way race. “Zero Dark Thirty”; “Django” and “Amour” are running neck-and-neck. Probabily we’ll have to wait BAFTA and WGA to see real movements. Unfortunately my personal pick “Moonrise Kingdom” is running distant fourth with little chances to worry the three front-runners
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner-Lincoln 1.41 (1.42)-CC
Chris Terrio-Argo 3.17 (3.42)
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook 8.57 (8.12)
David Magee-Lif of Pi 19.62 (19.58)
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild 30.37 (25.67)
The effects of the SAG and PGA have helped “Argo” bouncing a little, though “Lincoln” still got the edge. Even here we probabily must wait WGA and BAFTA to see a real “Game Change”.
And that’s all for this week fellow readers. We’ll wait next week after the DGA to see further developments. If Affleck upset Spielberg even at the DGA then, who can stop “Argo”?
Posted on January 28, 2013, in Awards, Movies and tagged Academy Award, Argo, Ben Affleck, Daniel Day Lewis, Lincoln, Screen Actors Guild, Screen Actors Guild Award, Steven Spielberg. Bookmark the permalink. 14 Comments.