The road to Oscar 3/Affleck wins DGA, and now “Lincoln” is the official underdog
I know that I’m young (24 yo) but I just can’t remember a weirder Oscar campaign. When nominations were disclosed kindest bookies rated “Argo” chances to win the “Best Picture” at +10 , but now Affleck’s thriller is running ahead over “Lincoln”.
In 65 edition the Directors Guild of America has awarded the winner of the Academy Award 56 times thus being the most reliable predictor for the “Best Director” Oscar. However we’re sure that this year the DGA will not guess, because this year the DGA has awarded Ben Affleck who, as we know, is not even nominated at this year’s Oscar.
The Affleck victory at the DGA, while being not influent on the “Best Director” award, help “Argo” becoming the official front-runner for “Best Picture”. This week bookies average have for the first time “Argo” ahead over “Lincoln”.
Argo 1.19 (1.82)-GGD-PGA-CC
Lincoln 4.01 (1.74)
Les Misérables 37.20 (27.85)-GGCM
Silver Linings Playbook 43.23 (37.92)
Life of Pi 47.53 (52.92)
Zero Dark Thirty 66.87 (56.54)
Amour 94.30 (84.15)
Django 134.60 (127.46)
Beasts of the Southern Wild 139.60 (143.31)
As we said above for the first time the bookies average gives “Argo” ahead over “Lincoln”. We know that an “Argo” victory is against the statistics since “Argo” hasn’t got a “Best Director” nomination and “Argo” is only fifth for number of nominations, but statistics and records are made to be broken
However pay attention to BAFTA this Sunday, the british equivalent to Oscar may be the last chance for a “Lincoln” comeback.
Steven Spielberg (2/7)-Lincoln 1.18 (1.29)
Ang Lee (1/3)-Life of Pi 6.03 (7.29)
Michael Haneke (0/1)-Amour 14.36 (13.17)
David O. Russell (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 24.89 (18.00)
Benh Zeitlin (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 55.46 (39.33)
It has yet happened that the winner of the DGA was not in the final five, however, if I’m not wrong, it has never happened that the winner of Critics Choice; Golden Globe and DGA was excluded from Oscar.
Usually such a situation, the winner of the three leading predictors out of the field, will lead to an uncertain race. However despite the endless string of defeats, Steven Spielberg maintains a stable and sizeable lead, tough not an overwelming one, over his nearest competitor, Ang Lee.
Daniel Day Lewis (2/5)-Lincoln 1.03 (1.05) GGD-SAG-CC
Hugh Jackman (0/1)-Les Misérables 16.33 (14.79) GGCM
Joaquin Phoenix (0/3)-The Master 33.53 (32.75)
Denzel Washington (2/6)- The Flight 54.53 (59.00)
Bradley Cooper (0/1)-Silver Linings Playbook 54.67 (52.25)
Three weeks to go, but Daniel Day Lewis’s third Oscar seems yet in a safe deposit box. Irish/British star retains a double digit lead over his nearest competitor, Hugh Jackman.
Jennifer Lawrence (0/2)-Silver Lingins Playbook 1.55 (1.54) GGCM-SAG
Jessica Chastain (0/2)-Zero Dark Thirty 2.82 (2.76) GGD-CC
Emmanuelle Riva (0/1)-Amour 9.87 (9.86)
Naomi Watts (0/2)-The Impossible 29.47 (29.18)
Quvenzhanè Wallis (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 43.73 (41.07)
Little changes in what is probabily the less predictable among top categories. Both Lawrence and Chastain are almost stuck to last week’s average and so is the “unwanted third” Emmanuelle Riva.
I think that Riva is the most concrete chance to see a high profile upset on Oscar night. If the “Clahs of the Titans” between Lawrence and Chastain ends in a split among voters, the french veteran might have a little chance to pull the upset. It’s David vs. not one, but two Goliath, however it’s a possibility not to rule out. Pay high attention to Sunday’s BAFTA for this one.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tommy Lee Jones (1/4)-Lincoln 1.73 (1.72)-SAG
Christoph Waltz (1/2)-Django Unchained 4.13 (4.85)-GG
Philip Seymour Hoffman (1/4)-The Master 4.74 (4.21)-CC
Robert De Niro (2/7)-Silver Linings Playbook 10.16 (10.73)
Alan Arkin (1/4)-Argo 33.29 (27.00)
As I predicted last week, now Christoph Waltz is officially the most frightening menace to front-runner Tommy Lee Jones. Austro/German Tarantino darling is going to repeat the stunning upset he made at the Golden Globes? In fourth position De Niro, probabily helped by the growing success of the sleeper hit “Silver Linings” at the box-office, is slowly remounting, so let’s keep an eye even on him.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (0/2)-Les Misérables 1.03 (1.03)-GG-SAG-CC
Sally Field (2/3)-Lincoln 21.57 (18.46)
Helen Hunt (1/2)-The Sessions 27.82 (37.07)
Amy Adams (0/4)-The Master 33.71 (34.86)
Jacki Weaver (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook (50.79)
Little changes on top, with Anne Hathaway walking on velvet towards uncle Oscar. Sally Field keeps losing ground in second position, while Helen Hunt takes back the third place, however this is the night safest bet.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Amour (Austria) 1.05 (1.04)-GG-CC
A Royal Affair (Denmark) 14.33 (14.33)
Kon Tiki (Norway) 22.17 (20.83)
No (Chile) 39.17 (33.67)
War Witch (Canada) 42.33 (37.17)
Another safe bet with Haneke’s “Amour” far ahead.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Brave 2.35 (1.90)-GG-CC
Wreck-it-Ralph 2.51 (4.47)-PGA
Frankenweenie 3.38 (2.67)
Paranorman 27.29 (21.00)
The Pirates! Band of Misfists 48.14 (31.83 )
PGA victory propelled “Wreck-it-Ralph” in second place- Ralph is now almost tied with the scottish maiden. Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie” however is still running neck and neck with fellow Disney rivals. An exciting three-way race, the momentum is now with “Ralph”.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty 2.36 (2.35)
Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained 2.99 (2.93)-GG-CC
Michael Haneke-Amour 3.02 (3.08)
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola-Moonrise Kingdom 15.71 (16.29)
John Gatnis-Flight 27.71 (24.71)
Still little changes in this three-way race. Will BAFTA be the “game changer” we need to have a clear front-runner?
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tony Kushner-Lincoln 1.48 (1.41)-CC
Chris Terrio-Argo 2.91 (3.17)
David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook 11.06 (8.57)
David Magee-Lif of Pi 22.62 (19.62)
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild 36.37 (30.37)
Even here we have to wait BAFTA to see a real game change. Bookies points toward a head to head between “Argo” and “Lincoln”. Despite the growing success, the sleepr hit ”Silver Linings Playbook” is still distant third
That’s all for this week fellow readers. We’ll wait a week to see how BAFTA Awards will affect the races.
Posted on February 7, 2013, in Awards, Movies and tagged Anne Hathaway, Argo, Ben Affleck, Christoph Waltz, Daniel Day Lewis, Jennifer Lawrence, Jessica Chastain, Lincoln, Oscar, Steven Spielberg, Tommy Lee Jones. Bookmark the permalink. 2 Comments.