Road to Oscar 2/ “Driving Miss Daisy” 23 years later? PGA and SAG results

85 oscar

Last week in comments an interesting observation came about chances for “Argo” to upset “Lincoln” in what look as an uphill battle. The last movie to win “Best Picture” without having a nomination for “Best Director” has been “Driving Miss Daisy” in 1990. However it looks more and more likely that “Argo” can pull the upset.

This weekend we saw two of the leading indicators for the Academy Awards, the Producers Guld Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards.

The Producers Guild Awards are considered a leading indicator for Best Picture. In the past 23 ceremonies the PGA has predicted the Best Picture winner 17 times and, like the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice Awards the PGA awarded “Argo” as “Best Picture”. Despite the Ben Affleck snub a Best Picture/Best Director split now seems higly likely. The PGA also awarded the “Best Animated Feature” and the winner has been “Wreck-it-Ralph” which increase chances for our video-game villaine to defeat the fellow-Disney scottish amazone, but still pay attention to Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie”.

What about the SAG? The award of actors union are a leading and reliable Oscar predictor since 1995. Last year three of the four winners then get the Academy (Jean Dujardin; Christopher Plummer and Octavia Spencer) with Viola Davis being the lone defeated of the SAG winners. This year the SAG awarded Daniel Day Lewis (Lincoln) as Best Actor, a feat that cements is front-runner status, while Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) won as Best Actress signing an important point in her “Clash of the Titans” versus Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), though probabily Jessica Chastain used some vodoo power against the poor Jennifer. As for supporting awards Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln) defeats Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master) thus mantaing the race for Best Supporting Actor wide open, while Anne Hathaway (Les Misérables) made another step towards her first Oscar confirming her “sure bet” status for the Best Supporting Actress award. While the “Best Cast” award went to “Argo” which is a surprise since only one actor of the cast, Alan Arkin, was nominated. Anoter sign that “Argo” will becom the “Best Picture”?. Let’s see how bookies reacted to this important awards. Into bracket last week average quota.

BEST PICTURE

best picture

Lincoln 1.74 (1.29)

Argo 1.82 (5.40)-GGD-PGA-CC

Les Misérables 27.85 (11.61)-GGCM

Silver Linings Playbook 37.92 (25.43)

Life of Pi 52.92 (23.58)

Zero Dark Thirty 56.54 (31.93)

Amour 84.15 (45.93)

Django 127.46 (101.29)

Beasts of the Southern Wild 143.31 (115.57)

As said above the PGA victory has propelled “Argo” that now is neck and neck with “Lincoln”. Before “Argo” seven movies have been able to win Golden Globe; PGA and Critics Choice in the same year. Only two of this seven movies have not then won the Oscar (“Brokeback Mountain” and “Saving Private Ryan”). The momentum is surely with “Argo”

BEST DIRECTOR

best director

Steven Spielberg (2/7)-Lincoln 1.29 (1.19)

Ang Lee (1/3)-Life of Pi 7.29 (6.87)

Michael Haneke (0/1)-Amour 13.17 (11.34)

David O. Russell (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 18.00 (17.08)

Benh Zeitlin (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 39.33 (37.42)

Despite “Lincoln” continuing streak of defeats Spielberg retains a sizeable lead over Ang Lee. However if  Spielberg miss also the DGA, then i will not rule out a possible upset. Though a Spielberg defeat is still a longshot, the streak of defeats “Lincoln” is having is worrying and might influence even this award that everybody thought was in Spielberg’s hands

 BEST ACTOR

best actor

Daniel Day Lewis (2/5)-Lincoln 1.05 (1.07)-GGD-SAG-CC

Hugh Jackman (0/1)-Les Misérables 14.79 (9.84)-GGCM

Joaquin Phoenix (0/3)-The Master 32.75 (26.00)

Bradley Cooper (0/1)-Silver Linings Playbook 52.25 (33.64)

Denzel Washington (2/6)- The Flight 59.00 (33.64)

There’s little to say here. Daniel Day Lewis continues to walk toward his third Oscar. The distance over his nearest competitor, Hugh Jackman is too high to think of a possible upset.

BEST ACTRESS

best actress

 Jennifer Lawrence (0/2)-Silver Lingins Playbook 1.54 (1.60)-GGCM-SAG

Jessica Chastain (0/2)-Zero Dark Thirty  2.76 (2.69)-GGD-CC

Emmanuelle Riva (0/1)-Amour 9.86 (12.39)

Naomi Watts (0/2)-The Impossible 29.18 (21.14)

Quvenzhanè Wallis (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 41.07 (38.79)

Lawrence and Chastain continues their battle neck and neck. Lawrence holds the lead, but a very tiny one. The protagonist of “Hunger Games” have signed a point with her SAG victory, but Chastain seems not willing to concede. However, while looking at Hollywood super-stars, pay attention to french veteran Emmanuelle Riva who is slowly remounting. She’s still far from the two favourites but let’s keep an eye on her.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

supporting actor

 Tommy Lee Jones (1/4)-Lincoln 1.72 (2.30)-SAG

Philip Seymour Hoffman (1/4)-The Master 4.21 (2.71)-CC

Christoph Waltz (1/2)-Django Unchained 4.85 (4.69)-GG

Robert De Niro (2/7)-Silver Linings Playbook 10.73 (12.41)

Alan Arkin (1/4)-Argo 27.00 (16.73)

 SAG sometimes is a “game changer”. It seems this year has been the case with Tommy Lee Jones who after the victory distances Critics Choice winner Philip Seymour Hoffman and Golden Globe winner Christoph Waltz. The momentum is with Tommy Lee Jones, while probabily Seymour Hoffman will be surpassed by Christoph Waltz as the main rival for TLJ.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

supporting actress

Anne Hathaway (0/2)-Les Misérables 1.03 (1.06)-GG-SAG-CC

Sally Field (2/3)-Lincoln 18.46 (14.50)

Amy Adams (0/4)-The Master 34.86 (21.50)

Helen Hunt (1/2)-The Sessions 37.07 (15.75)

 Jacki Weaver (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 50.79 (49.00)

 Little to say here. Anne Hathaway is running far ahead and there seems to be no chance for her rivals to worry her front-runner status. A status only cemented by her SAG victory.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

foreign language

Amour (Austria) 1.04 (1.04)-GG-CC

A Royal Affair (Denmark) 14.33 (14.83)

Kon Tiki (Norway) 20.83 (19.58)

No (Chile) 33.67 (33.00)

War Witch (Canada) 37.17 (36.83)

Minimal changes in this category, only barely touched by this week’s awards. “Amour” confirms to be a sure bet for this award.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Best animated feature

Brave 1.90 (1.99)-GG-CC

Frankenweenie 2.67 (2.21)

Wreck-it-Ralph 4.47 (5.80)-PGA

Paranorman 21.00 (13.00)

The Pirates! Band of Misfists 31.83 (24.00)

PGA victory has helped Wreck-it-Ralph to bounce, however the videogame villain who wants to “change” is still an underdog against the scottish maiden and Tim Burton’s born again dog. An interesting three-way race.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

original screenplay

Mark Boal- Zero Dark Thirty 2.35 (1.95)

Quentin Tarantino-Django Unchained 2.93 (3.05)-GG-CC

Michael Haneke-Amour 3.08 (3.33)

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola-Moonrise Kingdom 16.29 (13.20)

John Gatnis-Flight 24.71 (23.17)

Little movements in this three-way race. “Zero Dark Thirty”; “Django” and “Amour” are running neck-and-neck. Probabily we’ll have to wait BAFTA and WGA to see real movements. Unfortunately my personal pick “Moonrise Kingdom” is running distant fourth with little chances to worry the three front-runners 🙁

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Adapted screenplay

Tony Kushner-Lincoln 1.41 (1.42)-CC

Chris Terrio-Argo 3.17 (3.42)

David O. Russell-Silver Linings Playbook 8.57 (8.12)

David Magee-Lif of Pi 19.62 (19.58)

Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin-Beasts of the Southern Wild 30.37 (25.67)

The effects of the SAG and PGA have helped “Argo” bouncing a little, though “Lincoln” still got the edge. Even here we probabily must wait WGA and BAFTA to see a real “Game Change”.

And that’s all for this week fellow readers. We’ll wait next week after the DGA to see further developments. If Affleck upset Spielberg even at the DGA then, who can stop “Argo”?

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Anthony
Anthony
11 years ago

This is great stuff, I’ve seen Oscar predictions before but never in this context. That said, if Lincoln wins best picture I’ll probably throw my remote and cry myself to sleep! It was ok- but I just didn’t see it as the work of genius many did. It seemed slow, very drawn out, and completely unimaginative.

Johnny88
11 years ago
Reply to  Anthony

Thanks for compliments. Lincoln has been released in my country last week. I’m hoping to see it tomorrow and to make myself a judgement. By the trailer it seems a little apologetic towards Lincoln and radical republicans. The issue of slavery and subsequent segregation is very complex and Lincoln position on that issue has been much more ambigous than the common vision, who treats Lincoln like a secular saint, usually portraits. However I still need to see it. Spielberg (and Whoopi Goldberg) made a great stuff in “The Colour Purple” treating a similar issue, I’m hoping to see something nearly… Read more »

Anthony
Anthony
11 years ago
Reply to  Johnny88

I’m definitely interested to hear what you think of Lincoln. I think many Americans cling to the film because they feel it is the patriotic thing to do. It would be hard to deny the real Lincoln was an admirable human being but that doesn’t mean the film based on his presidency is worth an Oscar!

johnny88
11 years ago
Reply to  Johnny88

I finally saw Lincoln (just came back from cinema 😉 ) To a quick resume: the movie is very good, but somebody not interested in history or politics may find it boring. If I have to compare it to “Argo” well, to me, there’s no match. “Lincoln” is very good, both Day-Lewis and Lee Jones are Oscar-worthy (Field was somewhat weaker, however she deserve the nomination too). Good direction; good art direction; good costume design, excellent make up but… but “Argo” is able to entertain the audience much more. Affleck is able to make politics and hitory entertaining even to… Read more »

Johnny88
11 years ago

Well, I saw seven of the nine Best Picture nominee last year. Among the nine the only two that really liked were “The Artist” and “Midnight in Paris”. I found “The Artist” extremely cute, and I loved both protagonists (Dujardin and Bejo), to me it’s a little masterpiece. Also “Midnight in Paris” markes a good comeback for Woody Allen after many years of mediocrity. While the others, well… The Help-> cute, but given the hot subject I expected much more. I didn’t like Viola Davis performance, while Octavia Spencer was super. It’s a pity ’cause the subect was interesting and… Read more »

Johnny88
11 years ago
Reply to  lebeau

Don’t you worry. It’s just a matter of tastes 😀 However I find “The Artist” poetic and romantic. A classy movie with stunning protagonists. I liked also the direction of Michel Hazanavicius. The moment of the car crash is a high class touch. The same I can say about “Midnight in Paris”. Woody Allen has been able to make nice even the usually detestable Carla Bruni. This is something that deserve an Oscar 😀 Jokes aside, charming plot, a super Owen Wilson, and my personal darling Marion Cotillard makes a wonderful movie. I think that movies like “The Ides of… Read more »

Johnny88
11 years ago

“De gustibus non disputandum est” is a latin locution attributed to Cicero. Literary translation is something like “tastes can’t be discussed” 🙂 Sorry it made me look like Paul of “Midnight in Paris” 😀 Well, and speaking about Paul of “Midnight in Paris”, I think that Michael Sheen is probabily one of the most under-rated actors alive. He was great as Tony Blair in “The Queen”, awesome iin “Four Weddings and a Funeral” and even in “Frost/Nixon”. I’m so sad he has not the popularity he deserves.

Johnny88
11 years ago
Reply to  lebeau

In “Four Weddings and a Funeral” Michael Sheen is the mute brother of Hugh Grant. The one that interrupts Grant’s wedding with “Duckface”

Johnny88
11 years ago

And also Kristin Scott Thomas, always for WTHH (even if in reality nothing happened to KST. She simply walked away to France and despite being french movies so sucessful in recent years, France movie industry is still not as powerful as UK or US)

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