Road to Oscar 4/ BAFTA Awards: Argo keeps momentum, Riva upsets Lawrence/Chastain

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Two weeks to go to Oscar. The last big Oscar precursor, the BAFTA awards, have released its verdicts, with some surprises. Here the list of the winners in top categories.

Best Film: Argo

Best Director: Ben Affleck-Argo

Best Actor: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

Best Actress: Emmanuelle Riva-Amour

Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway-Les Misérables

Best Foreign Language Film: Amour (Austria)

Best Animated Feature: Brave

Best Original Screenplay: Django Unchained

Best Adapted Screenplay: Silver Linings Playbook

So, as we see “Argo” keeps the momentum and wins both Best Picture and Best Director, confirming its front-runner status. Now “Argo” has won all the leading Oscar predictor. Despite the Academy seems to love “Lincoln” now “Argo” seems the clear frontrunner for the top category.

Daniel Day Lewis, Anne Hathaway and “Amour” confirmed their “sure bets” status for Best Actor; Best Supporting Actress and Best Foreign Language Film.

The “surprise” came from the “Best Actress” category. Last weeks I always said to “keep an eye” on Emmanuelle Riva and I was right. French veteran score the upset, defeating the Hollywood superstars Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. Lawrence and Chastain have divided Oscar precursors, with Lawrence winning the Comdey/Musical Golden Globe and the SAG, while Chastain swept the Dramatic Golden Globe and the Critics Choice. However the BAFTA victory and the Academy supposed love for “Amour” now leads to think that french veteran Emmanuelle Riva might have a chance. Bookies show a late surge for french actress, as we will see in the average.

The race for “Best Supporting Actor” continues to be wide open. Tommy Lee Jones victory at the SAG seemed to be the “Game change” he needed, however Christoph Waltz victory re-open the battle, while Philipp Seymour Hoffman seems now a big underdog.

The “Adapted Screenplay” award to “Silver Linings Playbook” may lead towards a victory for the David O. Russell comedy in this category. Screenplay awards often are given as consolation prize and since Jennifer Lawrence now appears to be not so sure about her chances of victory…

However let’s look how BAFTA affected the races

BEST PICTURE

best picture

Argo 1.19 (1.19)

Lincoln 4.89 (4.01)

Silver Linings Playbook 44.43 (43.23)

Les Misérables 49.00 (37.20)

Life of Pi 49.01 (47.53)

Zero Dark Thirty 85.80 (66.87)

Amour 98.55 (94.30)

Django Unchained 102.33 (134.60)

Beasts of the Southern Wild 165.87 (139.60)

Oscar Precursors

Golden Globe Drama: Argo

Golden Globe Musical/Comedy: Les Misérables

BAFTA: Argo

PGA: Argo

Critics Choice: Argo

As we said above the spread between “Argo” and “Lincoln” continues to grow. A “Lincoln” comeback now seems highly unlikely.

BEST DIRECTOR

best director

Steven Spielberg (2/7)-Lincoln 1.21 (1.18)

Ang Lee (1/3)-Life of Pi 5.69 (6.03)

Michael Haneke (0/1)-Amour 14.75 (14.36)

David O. Russell (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 18.96 (24.89)

Benh Zeitlin (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 53.62 (55.46)

Precursors

Golden Globe: Ben Affleck-Argo

BAFTA: Ben Affleck-Argo

DGA: Ben Affleck-Argo

Critics Choice: Ben Affleck-Argo

Thanks to Spielberg string of defeats Ang Lee starts closing the gap, but seems to be too little, too late.

BEST ACTOR

best actor

Daniel Day Lewis (2/5)-Lincoln 1.03 (1.03)

Hugh Jackman (0/1)-Les Misérables 15.48 (16.33)

Joaquin Phoenix (0/3)-The Master 47.14 (33.53)

Denzel Washington (2/6)- The Flight 60.07 (54.53)

 Bradley Cooper (0/1)-Silver Linings Playbook 60.21 (54.67)

Precursors

Golden Globe Drama: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

Golden Globe Musical/Comedy: Hugh Jackman-Les Misérables

BAFTA: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

SAG: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

Critics Choice: Daniel Day Lewis-Lincoln

Tied with the Best Supporting Actress and Best Foreign Language for the most boring category. No chance for DDL rivals.

BEST ACTRESS

best actress

 Jennifer Lawrence (0/2)-Silver Lingins Playbook 1.57 (1.55)

Jessica Chastain (0/2)-Zero Dark Thirty  3.76 (2.82)

Emmanuelle Riva (0/1)-Amour 5.20 (9.87)

Naomi Watts (0/2)-The Impossible 33.60 (29.47)

Quvenzhanè Wallis (0/1)-Beasts of the Southern Wild 53.40 (43.73)

Precursors

Golden Globe Drama: Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

Golden Globe Musical/Comedy: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Lingins Playbook

BAFTA: Emmanuelle Riva-Amour

SAG: Jennifer Lawrence-Silver Linings Playbook

Critics Choice: Jessica Chastain-Zero Dark Thirty

The most interesting category of the year. Everything seemed to lead towards a showdown between Hollywood princesses, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain, but Riva victory at the BAFTA led french veteran to close the gap she had with Hollywood princesses. And remember, Riva is 85 years old…

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

supporting actor

 Tommy Lee Jones (1/4)-Lincoln 1.69 (1.73)

Christoph Waltz (1/2)-Django Unchained 2.66 (4.13)

 Phillip Seymour Hoffman (1/4)-The Master 6.71 (4.74)

Robert De Niro (2/7)-Silver Linings Playbook 10.60 (10.16)

Alan Arkin (1/4)-Argo 37.36 (33.29)

Precursors

Golden Globe: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

BAFTA: Christoph Waltz-Django Unchained

SAG: Tommy Lee Jones-Lincoln

Critics Choice: Phillip Seymour Hoffman-The Master

If there wasn’t the “Ben Affleck snub” this race will be the weirdest of the year. Christoph Waltz started the race as an underdog without a nomination to both SAG and Critics Choice. However austro/german Tarantino darling is now running neck and neck to Tommy Lee Jones for his second Oscar. SAG victory gave the momentum to TLJ, but thanks to BAFTA victory Christoph Waltz is coming back quickly. Phillip Seymour Hoffman, initially thought to be TLJ main rival is now running distant third. Probabily the reason is because “The Master” was loved by critics, but not so by moviegoers. If you look at both “Metacritic” and “Rotten Tomatoes” you’ll see an almost unanimous critical acclaim, but in the meantime, a sharp division among moviegoers. So the tepid reaction from moviegoers is probabily the reason why PHS is constantly losing ground.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

supporting actress

Anne Hathaway (0/2)-Les Misérables 1.02 (1.03)

Sally Field (2/3)-Lincoln 26.53 (21.57)

Amy Adams (0/4)-The Master 33.77 (33.71)

Helen Hunt (1/2)-The Sessions 35.23 (27.82)

 Jacki Weaver (0/2)-Silver Linings Playbook 86.08 (50.79)

Precursors

Golden Globe: Anne Hathaway-Les Misérables

BAFTA: Anne Hathaway-Les Misérables

SAG: Anne Hathaway-Les Misérables

Critics Choice: Anne Hathaway-Les Misérables

The safest bet of the night. Hathaway’s hands are yet around uncle Oscar.

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE MOVIE

foreign language

Amour (Austria) 1.04 (1.05)

A Royal Affair (Denmark) 14.94 (14.33)

Kon Tiki (Norway) 21.12 (22.17)

No (Chile) 37.62 (39.17)

War Witch (Canada) 40.37 (42.33)

Precursors

Golden Globe: Amour (Austria)

BAFTA: Amour (Austria)

Critics Choice: Amour (Austria)

Another boring race, with Haneke’s “Amour” running far ahead of his rivals.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Best animated feature

Brave 1.26 (2.35)

Wreck-it-Ralph 2.65 (2.51)

Frankenweenie 4.07 (3.38)

Paranorman 29.12 (27.29)

Pirates! Band of Misfits 47.12 (48.14)

Precursors

Golden Globe: Brave

BAFTA: Brave

PGA: Wreck-it-Ralph

Critics Choice: Brave

Brave cements the front-runner status, but Wreck-it-Ralph is still around, while Tim Burton’s Frankenweenie appears to have little chance.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

original screenplay

Django Unchained 1.96 (2.36)

Zero Dark Thirty 2.64 (2.99)

Amour 3.68 (3.02)

Moonrise Kingdom 18.93 (15.71)

Flight 30.29 (27.71)

Precursors

Golden Globe*: Django Unchained

BAFTA: Django Unchained

Critics Choice: Django Unchained

Despite the clean sweeps of precursors “Django” seems unable to build a substantial lead over his main opponents. Maybe the reason is that “Zero Dark Thirty” will probabily need a consolation prize, and since screenplay awards are often the consolation prize…

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Adapted screenplay

Lincoln 1.71 (1.48)

Argo 2.76 (2.91)

Silver Linings Playbook 6.49 (11.06)

Life of Pi 22.19 (22.62)

Beasts of the Southern Wild 33.12 (36.37)

Precursors

BAFTA: Silver Linings Playbook

Critics Choice: Lincoln

BAFTA victory has propelled a powerful “Silver Linings Playbook” comeback. Maybe a sign that also David O. Russell’s  comedy will need a consolation prize?

* The Golden Globe gives a sole screenplay award without distinguish between original and adapted screenplay

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Paul S
11 years ago

Reading your recent “Road to Oscar” articles has taken me twenty years back to when Michelle Pfeiffer nailed the role of Catwoman winning rave reviews, a massive army of new fans, her biggest box office hit, and an Oscar nomination for the year (albeit not as Catwoman). Leap forward a couple of decades and history repeats itself four times over…. Well three times over for now but we all know Anne Hathaway will make it four-for-four if as expected she wins for Les Miserables. “It’s worth thinking about Hathaway and Oscar through the prism of Pfeiffer. It’s not a perfect… Read more »

johnny88
11 years ago
Reply to  Paul S

Thanks for great comment. Well I think that the big difference is that overall the quality of superhero movies today is great. The quality of the current Batman and Spider-Man franchises is extremely high, while the same cannot be said for the 90’s Batman franchise. I personally didn’t enjoy the Batman franchise in my childhood (90s) and I haven’t change my mind nowadays. In the 90’s the Batman franchise were even able tu ruin some carreer. Just think about Chris O’ Donnell, who recovered only recently, or Alicia Silverstone. But now the Batman and Spiderman franchise have been able to… Read more »

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