The Oscars Reaction: Nominees, Snubs, Predictions, and Analysis


It’s Oscar season, and despite how much we all know it doesn’t actually recognize many of the best movies of the year, this is as close as cinema junkies get to a Super Bowl. So, while we may not have a dog in the race, we still watch (or at least read about it, because watching it is excruciatingly dull). And in much-needed good news the influx of voters has actually had the effect of increasing the representation of nominees. We have not only people of color nominated for every acting category, but for directing, writing, editing, and cinematography. This is a great win for everyone.

Here’s my analysis and picks for this year’s Oscars. These picks are guaranteed to be correct. If there is a discrepancy between the winners and this list, it is the Oscars who are wrong. And they should be ashamed.


Best Adapted Screenplay

Eric Heisserer, Arrival
August Wilson, Fences
Allison Schreoder and Theodore Melfi, Hidden Figures
Luke Davies, Lion
Barry Jenkins and Tyrell Alvin McCreaney, Moonlight

WHO WILL WIN: Fences, probably. August Wilson is among the most important playwrights of the 20th century.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Moonlight‘s empathetic and understated script was a marvel.

DARK HORSE: Lion, because it’s happy and true.

SNUB: Does Deadpool count?

UNDESERVING: Lion, I think.


Best Original Screenplay

Taylor Sheridan, Hell Or High Water
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Yorgos Lanthimos and Efthimis Filippou, The Lobster
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester By The Sea
Mike Mills, 20th Century Women

WHO WILL WIN: Manchester by the Sea is both laugh-out loud funny and heartbreaking and also human. An achievement.

WHO SHOULD WIN: Taylor Sheridan’s anachronistic dialogue is something wholly its own. and really sells HoHW. But I love The Lobster so much. I’d be fine with any of these 5, really.

DARK HORSE: Sheridan, though I do love Mike Mills, I don’t think he’s getting it this year.

SNUB: Green Room is so effective. So lean, but with character, but no wasted time or moments.

UNDESERVING: None, all good.

Next: Best Animated Feature


Posted on January 29, 2017, in Awards, Movies, Oscars and tagged , , , , , , , , . Bookmark the permalink. 3 Comments.

  1. I have seen almost none of the major nominees. This weekend, I caught up with The Lobster. I haven’t had time to dive into the awards season as of yet, but I enjoyed reading your thoughts on the nominations.


  2. I also enjoyed reading your thoughts. I share your love for the Lobster, btw, and I want it to win the Award. I know La La Land has like 99% chance of winning the Best Picture, but Moonlight could as well prevail given the country’s political climate atm, etc. It is also interesting you say that Toni Erdmann is getting a lot of love. It may be the case, but the Salesman will win, I think. As for the biggest snubs, for me its the Handmaiden (film) and Your Name (animation) – it is criminal to leave these two out of the competition.


  3. Thirded. Got LaLa, Manchester and a couple others on the must see list.


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